This week I will not publish a forecast, but I will propose a trading which I believe is excellent. It is bet wins with Sevilla Sevilla-At.Madrid. The fee is today at 1.46 and according to my calculations the theoretical price or should not really be expected to reach 1.35 for the following reason:
- The At.Madrid earn more losing than winning, Why?
This seems irrational makes sense. If neither wins nor At.Madrid or the UEFA Cup's sole possibility of going to Europe is that Sevilla go to the Champions League. Sevilla is 5 ° to 2 points of Mallorca and if not beaten to At.Madrid almost goodbye to the Champions, What will the Atleti? Will to win to stay out of Europe if not to win titles and go to pass around and lose because he benefits. The truth that as the Atletico you doubt a bit but let's do the numbers.
In my opinion the probability that the Sevilla win around 80% and if this is so theoretical quota should be 100/80 = 1.25, the market share we find 1.46, this is the market only gives 68% "will tend to rise or fall? I honestly do not see logic in that percentage tended to decline as trading should get out and finish it at a profit if Sevilla win, this is my prediction for the moment that as a comment on Sunday tradearé:
Amount: 1000 €
Match: Sevilla - Atletico Madrid
Fee: 1.46
Lay Sevilla € 1000
Fee: 1.39
PROFIT AFTER COMMISSIONS € 68
SUCCESSFUL TRADING, as we see in the picture if Sevilla win I earn € 70 and it remained at pre, never lose:)
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